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Trey Murphy III NBA Draft Scouting Report by Alex Brown

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Trey Murphy III Scouting Report

By: Alex Brown @AhbAnalytics

with insight courtesy of InStat Basketball


Player Profile

Age – DOB: 20 Years – June 18, 2000

Measurements: 6’9, 206 pounds, Wingspan N/A

ClassSchool: Junior – Virginia

Position: Wing – Forward (Referred to throughout as a 4 Wing, similar to the position Cam Johnson has been playing)

Background: Trey Murphy III was originally a 2-star prospect as a 6’4, 165lb guard. Trey even stated that he grew 4 inches between his HS junior and senior year, and the growth did not stop there. At the time, he held offers from 4 schools, including Rice (where he eventually committed & played 2 years) and Yale. He went on to grow to 6’7, 190lbs by his sophomore year, and now is up to 6’9, 206lbs. Trey described the Rice to Virginia transfer as a leap of faith, essentially betting on himself. He wanted to go somewhere where character, winning, & work ethic are heavily valued, and Virginia was that dream fit of a school. Now, his remarkable shooting, insane growth spurt, humble beginnings, new start with Virginia, and high character have catapulted him into the NBA draft conversation.

It is important to note that he has not been a 3 or 4 wing his whole life, and that he has a lot of upside on both ends for a junior prospect. While age naturally mitigates upside, he should be treated as a late bloomer, because he is. 4-5 inches and 40 pounds of growth in a few years is a huge change, and it gave him tools he had not had for his whole life. He is still learning to use them.

Off the court, Trey is a psychology major with solid family ties. His father (Kenneth) also played college basketball at East Carolina from ’86 to ’88. Trey describes his father as a major motivator and critic, which he credited to helping his mental toughness and work ethic.

Agent: TBD

Injury Report: No significant injury information publicly available.

Personality: Trey really seems to have a great head on his shoulders. Coach Bennett really loves his character, and believes he has the right mentality to maximize his potential. In order to do that, Trey understands that he will need to be a two-way player. He buys in, works hard, stays humble, remains unselfish, and is very coachable. Otherwise, he consistently hypes up his teammates when they make plays and really seems to have their respect and friendship. From all accounts, he is a kid to root for and a positive locker room presence that coaches will enjoy developing.

 “I know I’d love to touch something like that, touch greatness. That’s like the ultimate goal and that’s why I came here, I knew we have the chance to win a national championship. It’s something you dream about as a kid.”

Via: https://stockrisers.com/s/245/virginias-trey-murphy-iii-talks-season-goals-development-tony-bennett 

Athleticism: Trey moves quickly when given a chance to run the floor, and shows flashes of decent burst worth tapping into as well. He is not a notable vertical threat right now, but can finish strongly above the rim when he has room to load off two feet. He is not great in traffic, and his coordination around the rim is average. However, there could be some untapped athletic ability here, as he is quite a worker and could benefit by adding more and more muscle since his burst doesn’t create many advantages anyway. Due to the late blooming growth he experienced, there is room for him to fill out and get stronger and quicker. That would certainly help him own his space, and I would recommend it.

Projected Roles: Wing Shooter, Perimeter Play Finisher, P&R Wing, Switchable Wing & Forward Defender (serviceable, not a lockdown).

Projected Draft Landing: Late Lottery – Mid First Round (Projecting a significant mainstream rise, especially considering he is not even listed in many mocks for whatever reason).

Statistical Profile (as of 1/9/2021)

So far at Virginia

All college games

Major Swing Factors: OTD Creation (Drive and Jumpshot), Defensive Development (how long will his improvements continue to accrue?), Strength, Off Ball Creation, Shot Assertiveness.

Career Projections:


Offense

Strengths

Improvement Areas

 

 


Defense

Strengths

Improvement Areas


Overall Outlook

We know Trey can shoot and play solid defense, the question is more of can he be anything more than a perimeter shooter with defensive value? Outside catch and shoot, what will he give you on the ball? There are flashes of that 1-2 dribble creation & athletic slashing moves, so can you tap into that moving forward? If it is possible (which I think it is), he could be a really valuable supporting wing. While nothing is certain, there is a great base to tap into here and a floor I would be comfortable with investing in. Worst-case scenario is that he ends up as a floor stretcher with a near neutral defensive presence. I am comfortable with that floor providing winning value.

Compared to other high profile 2-way wing prospects, I would put him below guys like Mikal Bridges & Devin Vassell that can be major positives defensively and create offense for themselves. I would also put him below Patrick Williams, as he provides value in similar ways at a higher level (which obviously looks great at the NBA level thus far). In hindsight, I certainly had Patwill too low as a mid lotto guy, but that is a topic for another day.

Trey (like Patwill) does not have that elite defensive mobility but will still be used in switches and schematically emphasized as a switchable wing defender, although he does not provide as much value as a secondary rim protector and big defender. Furthermore, Trey adds value as a high IQ floor spacer (see Patwill, Mikal) with a bit of potential creation as well. Considering that comparative value and skillset, I would certainly be comfortable taking Trey in the mid first round to knock down 3’s consistently and play serviceable wing defense. If on/off ball creation continues to improve with his defense throughout the year, I would be happy to have him rise to the lottery. There are not many wings that can shoot it like Trey and can defend.

Trey would thrive as a lethal off ball threat alongside other initiators with notable gravity, so naturally teams like the Mavericks & Nuggets would be where he fits in best.