Patrick Williams – NBA Scouting Report by Zachary Smith

Following the success Zachary Smith has had from his last scouting report he has come up with another Top 30 Scouting Report for the up and coming NBA 2020 Draft. As always we have garnished it with video as well as added playtype insights which are located in the report below.


 

Patrick Williams

2020 draft age: 18.9

Measurements: 6’8” / 225lb / 6’11” wingspan

Advanced Stats: 19.4 PER / 8.4 AST% / 10.5 REB%

106.9 OFF RTG and 94.1 DEF RTG for a +12.8 NET RTG

55.3 TS% on 22.2 USG%

Background: Freshman at FSU… Went to West Charlotte HS… 34th overall and sixth best SF nationally according to ESPN going into college… Grew up playing the guard and started high school at 6’0”…McDonald’s All American… One of youngest players in this draft… Won 6th Man of the Year in ACC…

the above video is a highlight reel of Williams across the last 29 games he has played in

Personality: “He’s from a great family and he’s got great character.” – FSU Associate Head Coach Stan Jones… Teammates have spoken about how humble and hardworking he is… Chose FSU over Carolina schools because Coach Hamilton pitched him on defense… “Patrick came here wanting to become a better defender and to increase his intensity for the amount of time he’s on the floor,” Hamilton said… Film of Williams from multiple games SPRINTING to go help his teammates off the ground…

Injury History: Missed 2 games this year due to a sprained toe… Played the last 11 games of season without a public reinjury or flare up… No major injuries…

Athleticism: Runs in a straight line well, but slow to accelerate… Below average at changing direction while at full speed… Vertical leap is good… Will try to dunk everything but needs space to finish (25/32 on dunks)… Lateral movement is up and down, the result of unreliable footwork…

Projected Fit: Point forward / Stretch 4

Projected Draft Landing: Between picks 15-25

Career Projections:

High: Williams is a top level role player who can create consistently out of the pick & roll (P&R). He uses his ability to shoot off the dribble to be a very good three level scorer. He does not develop into a player who can run off off-ball screens. He is a versatile scorer otherwise, cutting to the rim, in catch and shoot, pick and pop, and posting up. His three point percentage eventually catches up with his free throw percentage as he excels as a 3rd or 4th offensive option. Defensively, he is a solid team defender who blocks shots well for his size, while also being very good at reading passing lanes. He becomes an above average perimeter defender who can guard the 2 (in limited time) through 4. His main advantage on the defensive end is his positioning and intelligence. He finds a way to utilize his athleticism on this end of the floor.

Medium: Williams develops into a 3&D roleplayer with an average ability to create shots. The majority of his points are off catch and shoot 3s or midrange pull up jumpers. He finishes above the rim strictly in fast breaks. He keeps the ball moving and is a solid swing passer. On the defensive end, Williams is a solid team defender who uses his IQ and hustle. He struggles guarding perimeter players and gets beat to the basket off the dribble.

Low: Williams is a low efficiency scorer. He is a free throw specialist in last game situations. He is a low usage offensive player who’s meaningful touches are in catch and shoot situations due to his limited mobility. He struggles to create space on the offensive end, resorting to contested pullup jumpers. NBA length stops Williams from developing as a passer and finishes his career with an assist to turnover ratio under one. Defensively, Williams is a below average player who shows effort. Due to his lack of athleticism off vertical, he rebounds at a below average rate. He should still stick in the league because of his potential and being a locker room guy.

Offense:

Strengths:

Scoring versatility: Williams is a three level scorer. His three point percentage is average but should hold at the NBA level. According to The Stepien, Williams shot 31.3% from the NBA range three point line while finishing the season shooting 32% from the NCAA three point line. He has a consistent, high release. He excels at scoring in the midrange. Only 11% of his baskets from this level were assisted. His release may even be better off the dribble. Williams elevates quickly and finishes with a consistent follow through. The play types typically leading into this are attacking off of closeouts or P&R. When attacking the rim, Williams is a straight line driver with a few solid dribble moves. He uses his body well to create contact. He is an average finisher for his size. His finishing ability is rather basic, consisting of dunks, and layups with either hand. He did finish 62% of his attempts at the rim though, which is a good sign.

Pick and Roll Potential: Williams has unlimited potential in the P&R. This will be his bread and butter at the NBA level if he develops into the best player he can be. As the ball handler in the P&R at FSU, Williams averaged 0.958 PPP, in the 89th percentile through February 14th according to Synergy. His ball handle is good for his position. Where he shows the most potential in this action is his passing. For a young forward, he has excellent passing reads. He has good vision, put on display by his multiple lobs to the rim for screeners. Although it was a small sample size, his passes out of the P&R led to a 46% field goal percentage. This can lead to his team running some very unique offensive sets. He can run P&R with 5s or P&P with guards. I especially like the idea of the mismatches that can be created with running P&P with guards setting screens.

Cutting to the Rim: Williams excels at knowing when to stay out on the perimeter and when to cut to the basket off the ball. He reads his defenders footwork very well, cutting immediately when his man steps toward the ball. He is at his most athletic and creative when finishing at the rim on his cuts. His free throw ability helps him on these plays, not shying away from contact. He shot in the 70th percentile on these plays.

Areas of Improvement:

Feel for the game: Williams did have a turnover issue at FSU, but not due to passing errors. Most of his turnovers were due to travels and offensive fouls. This is a result of poor footwork, posture, and balance. He plays with a high center of gravity, leaving him liable to get knocked off his spot. His footwork is extremely awkward off the catch, not really setting his feet; it looks like defensive footwork. His below average creativity when getting to the rim is the cause of his constant offensive fouls, forcing him to use his size and push his way to the rim. He doesn’t show much touch around the rim. Williams goes up to dunk everything, even when he’s not above the rim. This results in a high amount of blocked shots and an average amount of free throw attempts. A lot of his contested attempts at the rim appear as if he’s throwing the ball at the rim instead of shooting a layup.

Consistency: Williams struggled with consistent scoring at FSU. He had 8 games scoring 5 points or less. Good news is that he only had one such game since the start of February. His jumper is marginal when he faces late pressure, forcing him to speed up his slow catch and shoot release. This results in erratic accuracy, finishing long and missing the rim completely. One thing that could raise his shooting percentages is his lower body. His knees collapse on each other, forcing him to change up his footwork. His increase is scoring consistency over the last month and a half of the season most likely has something to do with him attacking the basket more. He only had one game since the start of February with more than two attempts from three point range. In 2019, William shot 39.1% from three over 14 games. That percentage dropped down to 26.9% over 15 games. Even on his dunks he was inconsistent, finishing only 78%. One example of a dunk he has to finish at the next level was an attempt over UNC prospect Cole Anthony. Williams got the foul call, but needs to finish vertically above 6’2” guards.

Transition: Williams struggled to finish in transition. Through February 14th, he put up 0.805 PPP, leaving him in the 19th percentile in transition play. One of his issues here was trying to force transition too much. When he grabs defensive rebounds, he will push the ball up the court quickly without looking up initially. He had a few turnovers just by dribbling into defenders who hadn’t ran back on defense yet. When playing against USF earlier, there was one specific play where Williams had the ball in transition. All he had to do was rip through for an easy dunk, but instead dribbled into the defender. When Williams does have the time and space to load, he can get up vertically.

Defense:

Strengths:

Team Defense: Williams is at his best defensively when he is off the ball. This frees him up to call out reads for his teammates. He excels as a vocal leader on defense. He is good at recognizing when the ball handler turns his back to him, rushing the ball and applying added pressure and securing steals. If he works on his on ball ability, he could fulfill a Draymond Green type role defensively. He is consistent when tagging rolling bigs and post touches. He is above average at rotations, but his lateral quickness does hold him back some.

Rim Protection: Williams is a strong positional defender at the rim. As a primary or secondary defender, he allowed a 41% field goal percentage at the rim. That is on par with some of the best NBA defenders. This number is inflated due to a small sample size, defending about 2.5 shots at the rim per game. He will be an average shot blocker at best considering his size and need to load before rising vertically. He won’t develop into an elite shotblocker, but will be adequate as a rotational rim defender. Williams takes contact well at the rim, showing potential as a small ball 5 in limited minutes.

Passing Lanes: Williams relies on his length (6’11” wingspan) and IQ in attacking passing lanes. He excels at playing denial off ball and using his length to force more difficult passes or get steals. He put up a good steal percentage of 2.5% at FSU. I wouldn’t match him up against someone who will be ran off screen actions, but he can deny slower players who play a ball dominant style.

Areas of Improvement:

Isolation: Williams is below average in defending isolations. He gets beat off the dribble due to his poor posture and footwork. When Williams does manage to recover, it is because he completely opens his hips up, allowing a straight line drive. He struggles to change direction quickly and it really shows. I would initially match him up only with small ball 4s and possibly 5s. He could be better at guarding isolated post sets. He didn’t get a chance to guard any post ups in college, but his NBA size projects well.

Rebounding: Williams is a below average rebounder, especially considering he already boasts NBA size. He had a 10.5 TRB% and averaged only 7.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. These are averages of a true wing, not a stretch 4. Williams also struggled with consistency, having 6 games with 2 rebounds or less. He doesn’t box out the majority of the time, relying on his physicality to rebound.

Close Outs: Williams is late sometimes on his close outs due to him relying on his length. He falls for fakes the majority of the time, resulting in Williams standing up straight on pump fakes. NBA players will take advantage of this and force him to be disciplined. Williams realizes when to get out to shooters, but his physical needs to catch up with his mental in this area.

Overall Outlook:

Patrick Williams 29 game stretch playtype insight
the above image courtesy of InStat Basketball is related to Williams’ last 29 games and the playtypes he’s been involved in

Williams is a prospect with a rather high ceiling offensively. If he develops as a P&R player, both as a ball handler and screener, he will have a place in the league for many years. His shot should translate considering his excellent free throw percentage. Williams could struggle defensively, but has the IQ and work ethic to grow in this area. He improved in ACC play and NBA coaching should only help him grow more. His first contract should be a time for him to grow and develop, considering he will only be 22 after his rookie contract. Williams is one of the safest prospects with a very good ceiling.


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