Euroleague Playoffs – Road to Belgrade 2018 – A regression based analysis

This has been an extremely busy season for us at Advance Pro BAsketball. We have been assisting several key teams with various competitions across Europe. All the while we also have been keeping an eye out on the top competition, the pearl of Europe so to say, the “Euroleague” and now as we draw a close to the regular season and head into the playoffs. We did a bit of regression calculation and came up with the following outcomes. While these results can potentially be updated on a per result basis we wanted to give a bit of a practical outcome visualisation for our followers and those that follow the Euroleague.

At this point we would like to thank the guys over at OVERBASKET for an amazing job on following up the data coming out of the play by play information and turning it into a visual extravaganza. On our end here at Advance Pro Basketball we were frankly a bit disappointed at the overall results that Anadolu Efes got and ended up with. 7 – 23 games and ending up 16th overall in the competition. Putting all emotional input aside. There were some amazing youngsters that we saw emerging out of the competition as well. No one can second guess that Luca Doncic will be heading over to the NBA next season as he ended up being the most viable youngster starting 20 games for Real Madrid in the EL. Check out the Top 5 qualified players based on PER standings as of last week:

Player Efficiency Rating
Arturas Gudaitis     25.5
Luka Doncic            24.5
Vladimir Stimac       24.1
Nando De Colo       24.0
James Augustine    22.9

A side note needs to be set in place that the young Lithuanian Arturas Gudaitis while still an improving center, he has managed to play more minutes this season +500 than his first two seasons at Zalgiris (+370 both seasons combined) and he has been amazing both offensively and defensively for the Italian team scoring +270 points with 29 blocks and 16 steals so far. I see him heading over to the NBA in no time as well.

The Playoff Standings

Like a lot of my colleagues and peers I should point out that the above regression model does not take into account any regular weights or recent game W/L situations and definitely therefore should not be used in any BETTING cases!

With the above out of the way, I would like to point out that we do not play favoritism at Advance Pro Basketball however given their recent streak and the ability to shut down games Real Madrid vs. CSKA would be a lovely Finals matchup to have. All too naturally we can not count out last year’s champions Fenerbahçe Doğuş. I am torn though weather Baskonia or Zalgiris will be one of the remaining final four candidates. Yet again, I would be remiss to state that all the remaining teams have more than a chance and a fight in them to be able to make it to Belgrade.

Lets all enjoy the playoffs for the time being and see which teams do come up with a couple of surprise wins along the way!

Much love you all!

Ermay Duran

Advance Pro Basketball

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