Five factors were found to significantly affect a team’s win percentage: Field Goals Made/40 mins, Points per Game/40 mins, Assists per Game/40 mins, Offensive Rating, and Floor Impact Counter/40 mins. The most glaring stats among the four teams is the difference in offensive ratings and FIC40. Since defence statistically has no effect on winning, these two variables will be the main drivers of success this weekend.
[infogram id=”euroleague_final_4_win_predictions_based_on_5_key_stats” prefix=”Z0m”]
In semi-final 1, Real Madrid goes up against Fenebahçe Istanbul. Real Madrid is better than Fenebahçe in every category and total is 12% better than their opponent. Since Real Madrid is better in every category, they should have no problem closing out this game and advancing to the final.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 78-69
Semi-Final 2 pits CSKA Moscow against Olympiacos Pilaeus. Similarly to semi-final 1, the result here should never be in doubt as CSKA Moscow is better than Olympiacos in each category, while also being 11% better total.
Prediction: CSKA Moscow wins 74-66
The final should be much more competitive than the semi-finals. Real Madrid has better numbers in 80% of the variables compared to CSKA Moscow and therefore has a statistical advantage. However, Real Madrid as a team is only 2.3% better than their opponent meaning that this game could come down to the final shot.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 84-82
Real Madrid will be the champions of the tournament after missing the tournament last year and will capture their second title in the last 3 seasons.