The force that is unstoppable?! – Berkan Durmaz a rising star

Back in 2015 when he jumped out of the wood work of the Tofaş youth development system it was obvious that the then budding PF would make more than just a splash in basketball. To be honest I first came across this young man back in 2013 while he played for the U16 Turkish national team where he impacted the team not just on the court but made a major contribution on the bench as he has a real high basketball IQ that allows him to explain things to his teammates with ease.

This year Berkan had an opportunity to not just develop while playing the the top league in Turkey the Basketball Super League (BSL) but he also was granted a secondary license that allowed him to play in the second league the Turkish Basketball league (TBL) with Bakırköy Basket for a certain number of games.

This experience allowed Berkan to grow on the court all too naturally. His only downfall was an injury he sustained that sidelined him for a few games during the middle of the season.

A Glimpse at his numbers (02.05.2018 – 11.02.2018)

Berkan is a unique big man that has qualities that puts him in a Mehmet Okur type class, not only does he have the fundamental skills down but his range of shooting as well as effectivity on defense make him a threat on the court at all times if he is not covered.

 

His skills in the footage:

Offensive skills:

Defensive skills:

End Result

Berkan so far has made two attempts to enter the NBA Draft once back in 2017 when he withdrew and is also entering the draft this summer as well, at the age of 21, my thoughts after having scouted him across +20 games, I think its safe to say that his ideal case should happen next year at the 2019 NBA Draft.

Key areas of improvement that need work:

  • footwork
  • speed
  • agility
  • quicker ball release
  • more catch & shoot play involvement

Key plus sides

  • Big body bigger – shooting range
  • Easily reads opponents & reacts defensively
  • Perimeter defender & weak side helper all in one
  • persistent on both ends of the court
  • good passer

* We’d love to do more scouting reports that bring sound feel free to email me at ermay@advanceprobasketball.com

We’d also like to see donations from you our dear followers:

Bridging the gap

A brief European basketball leagues comparison (2011-2016)

Introduction

This post is a brief deep dive into the recent history of European basketball leagues ranging from Germany, Spain, Italy, France to Turkey as well as a league such as the Euroleague which is Pan-European. The aim is mainly to pin-point and highlight certain values that have been reached between 2011-2016 across different leagues while comparing how different domestic leagues have done against others in different regards. The reason why a five year span has been made use of is due to the fact that it makes it easier to average out and bring current data and values forward with adequate focus on proper analysis.

The breakdown

As mentioned above, this is a deep dive into historic statistical values that have been recorded and have further been worked up as a part of Advance Pro Basketball’s recent data acquisition.

To explain things further in terms of statistical values point production across Europe has always been a strategic point of impact across various domestic leagues. In Europe a natural balance is present; key defensive values impact the way teams create offense and visa versa. This this point in mind it should be noted that the pace of games across Europe are played at high levels and to a major extent non European players as well as European players alike have a further impact on how point production ends up being of high value. It should not be under estimated that defense is also critical in European basketball overall. Defensive Rating an effective statistic which collectively and initially accounts for player/team impact of defense across leagues has been put to use and an offensive comparison through Offensive Rating along side pace has also been taken into account as can seen below in the initial table. While ideally over the last five years varying leagues namely, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey and the Euroleague have been focal points and have seen top level competition in Mens’ basketball.

As seen in the table there has been a climb in all categories across all the leagues in Spain, Germany, France as well as in Turkey. This has obviously impacted the Euroleague wherein champions as well as contenders at the top of domestic European leagues compete on a weekly basis. With the recent format change in the Euroleague that has increased the number of games seems to have positively impacted the pan-european competition however the domestic leagues have suffered in the process.

Tri-league comparison 

Given the picture across Europe with the initial ORtg, DRtg and Pace it only makes sense to look closer at effective scoring across selective leagues. In this sense the decision to look at the Turkish BSL, German BBL and Italian Serie A leagues which have respectively differing stances in terms of foreign player restrictions, strategic player rotations, coaching strategies and most importantly team/league value ($$ vs. player production).

 

 

With the above graphs on the left hand side it becomes evident that while during the 12-13 season in Italy turnovers where at a 5 year high with 18,3% turnovers across the league it should be noted overall that domestic leagues games spanning across a season in Europe usually range on average between 33-35 games. Moreover a 5 year low was hit back in the same season in Turkey with 14,8% turnovers across the league proving that ball possession was critical to teams/players competing in the BSL (then Turkish basketball league). Once more its best to point out that TOV% is a good indicator to effective scoring production especially when it comes to analyzing league and historical values in this kind of setting.

To put a spotlight focus on direct effective scoring production its only sensible to look directly at True Shooting percentages (TS%) as well as effective Field Goal percentages (eFG%) which are both by far the most highly regarded statistics that allow for effective analysis.

As seen in the right hand side of the graph, in terms of TS% the Italian league has seen both peaks of highest and lowest percentages in two (13-14, 15-16) seasons.

On the other hand in terms of eFG% a commentary as follows can be made. The Turkish BSL which underwent a change in increasing its foreign player count for teams was positively impacted in the process. While in the German BBL the stability that had started with the 2010-2011 season which prior dates yet can be seen as a precursor to how overall effective scoring and point production has made the German BBL one of the most of not the most marketable league within this analysis. In terms of the Italian Serie a league which has seen its share of issues on the court with only a hand full of teams being able to make effective use of realistic $$ vs. player production had hit the highest mark by the end of the 2013-2014 season.

Differences of Play

To put a spin on things further, here is a more plain look at how different leagues across 5 years have soared. France where predominantly a fast paced style of play with a median pace within the mid 80s had been hit. On the other end of the spectrum where we see more high volume possessions which effectively mean hihg level of figures with closer to +85 pace figures have been hit in the Turkish BSL prove a clear contrast between the leagues initially. With this in focus we can take a closer look at how basic stats looked like in the past between the French Pro A and BSL leagues.

 

Conclusion

There is close to enough evidence that overall European basketball has varying styles and strengths of play ranging from high level offense to high level defense. At a glance very simplistically when all aspects considered the Turkish Basketball Super League seems to be the league best adapted to all the current changes and has in the process become the league for players especially foreigners without a doubt. It is still a question to be answered whether the domestic players within the BSL can shine as well as they have in the past and contribute to key wins as the current season continues.

Re-born OKBEN ULUBAY

Okben Ulubay, spent past seasons at Anadolu Efes and Pertevniyal taking on important roles and minutes however never felt he was able to contribute as much as he wanted, with his transfer to Yeşil Giresun Belediyesi at the beginning of the 2016-2017 season it looks very much he has found himself as a re-born player.

With this post we are proud to share the achievements Okben has been undergoing this season, the visual, a first for #advanceprobasketball as a statograph shows his status among Turkish players in the current BSL season.

Is this trade really a trade? (Furkan Korkmaz & Can Maxim Mutaf)

In a brief visual comparison of two key national team players that have had great impact on their teams have switched places and hope to find a better flow and career path.

Furkan Korkmaz: The young talent and 1st round, 26th pick of the 67ers has moved to Banvit so that he might get improved playing time and better exposure.

Can Maxim Mutaf: A shinning talent since 2006 that has been improving his game every year since he has hit the European basketball scene.

You be the judge, was the trade between Banvit and Anadolu Efes a two way success or will it bring one player more than the other?

As the 2nd week closes off on the BSL

As the 2nd week of the BSL closes off with two games remaining. 3 games stood out this week that I wanted to share with you.

Based on my assessments here are a few bits of information I think will be useful to bare in mind as the season goes on. Given the fast paced start to the BSL its very likely that we will see more games with +74 possessions. Especially with hard defensive teams DRtg’s will be around 110.0 and with such games I would also expect to see more games with HOB rates of 120% (given the tendency of pick&pop, 3 passes to score, triangle offense type set plays as well as pick&roll type plays will also become even more effective this season).

Trabzonspor Medical Park vs. Yeşil Giresun (The youngsters of Giresun on a roll.)

With 76 possessions across both teams a game that went into OT was won by Yeşil Giresun. While its been repeated several times prior to the start of the season and even last week, its very evident that the young (Turkish) stars of Giresun under one roof are going to be amazing to watch as they take advantage of having been together at the national team level. As Trabzonspor recorded 73 FGA Giresun managed to clinch the W with 31 FGM out of 64 FGA and aside form Gill on the Giresun roster all players recorded double figures for their USG% which again proved a high paced game as well as a fun to watch one at that.

Tofaş – GSOB ( Tofaş might have lost in the last seconds!)

I am happy that Tofaş are finally back at playing ball in the BSL but to be frank the tempo at which they were competing last season needs to go up. While playing in a league where possessions will be much higher and the pace relatively much faster I have confidence in coach Ene and the Tofaş staff that their performance will increase. I will be keeping an eye on Tofaş in terms of advanced stats as well as analytics overall.

To me this game was all about the last second shot by Austin Daye from the corner that gave GSOB the W. However it should be noted that GSOB given the strenuous Euroleague and BSL schedule do need to pull things together much faster. Playing with a classical 8 man lineup will not cut it this season. When looking at the % played figures of GSOB only 4 players seem to have played +10% of the game which can be considered alarming to an extent.

The actual story of the game though was hidden in the TOV%. While Tofaş commited 23%, GSOB only came up with 17%. When looking at basics such as the FGM/FGA while Tofaş had 30/54 and scored 80 points GSOB had to attempt 61 shots to reach 31 made field goals and managed to get 82 points.

As mentioned above while Tofaş might have lost in the last seconds of the game I am confident that the next time these two teams matchup Tofaş will be ready with better offensive rebounding.

Banvit – Daruşşafaka Doğuş (Banvit made the right moves with the start of the season.)

With a very busy off season for both teams, D.Doğuş, looking for the optimal lineup that will compete in both the Euroleague and the BSL in contrast to Banvit which made moves based on what budget they had. With that said; Banvit had brought over the extraordinary PG, Jordan Theodore (experienced in playing in Turkey)  from Germany and BBL side Fraport Skyliners where he had a great season. The star PG played a whopping +43 minutes and recorded 11/22 FGM and had a 61% TS percentage along with 53% of a HOB rate.

While watching the game I saw several lineup moves by David Blatt that got me wondering what the optimal solution would be. The NBA Champion (David Blatt) did make use of Brad Wanamaker, Bertans and Harangody very effectively throughout the game in my opinion.

Beşiktaş opens great at home!

Beşiktaş opened up their 2016 – 2017 BSL campaign with a good start during last week’s first away game in Ankara against TED Kolejliler, expectations were that they were going to go up against a tough opponent this week with Uşak during the season’s first home game.

Prior to the game Ozan Bulkaz as well as Beşiktaş Head Coach Ufuk Sarıca both had stated that they had scouted each other well enough, yet given that both sides were facing off with reasonably new lineups that were still in the process of meshing made the difference.

I especially had my eye on Kyle Weems as well as Kenan Sipahi(19% HOB) in terms of their efficient performances. Aside from this its evident to me that Thompson will be facing a longer process of getting used to playing in the BSL (Based on the first and this second game figures that he has racked up so far). Last but not least I want to note that M.Güler was the prominent Turkish player that played the most percentage-wise, yet S.Şanlı was the better in terms of effective GmSc.

NOTE: I am wondering how the search for an athletic big man of Beşiktaş will affect the team chemistry and if it will bring an added boost to the team?

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BSL 1st week & TBL 2nd week advanced stats and a game analysis

I would first of all like to wish everyone a great 2016 – 2017 basketball season.

In the near future I hope to share more detailed insights about all the Turkish Basketball leagues via stats.advanceprobasketball.com but till the development is fully completed and the database solutions are in place I will be posting information as follows:

Sakarya BB vs. Nesine Eskişehir Basket game analysis:

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BSL Finals Series Analytics Review

Dear Followers,

Especially given my involvement and follow up with the NBA Finals, private personal workouts and trying to raise the awareness and exposure of Advance Pro Basketball; I realized that I have not focused on the BSL Finals series at all.

With this post I would like to do so:

A look at the past games:

Below is a small chart that gives you some insight on the results and leaders of the first three games:

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I would like to especially draw your attention to the PPP in terms of the 2nd and the 3rd game and the shift between the teams.

Dear Anıl Duman  has done some amazing work in terms of focusing on the BSL Finals series. Below are the two posts he has put up on his own sight (in Turkish) giving information about the advanced stats of the 3rd and 4th games:

3rd game advanced stats by Anıl Duman

4th game advanced stats by Anıl Duman

In addition to Anıl’s amazing insight please also find the following all listed below:

A video Highlight (in Turkish) courtesy of Ligtv the official TV broadcasting provider of the BSL:

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The 4th gama analytics breakdown:

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An indepth look at the lineups of both teams and for the first time including an indicator to the rising performances and dropping performances of players based on the whole series:

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I also wanted to share some insight about the 4 factors of the 5th game that will be played out at Abdi İpekçi Arena:

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Son olarak sizlerle bir ilki paylaşmak istedim. Her ne kadar veri yetersizliği halen büyük sıkıntılar doğuruyor olsada eldeki geçmiş verilere dayalı olarak mümkün olduğunca maç simülasyon sayısını ve algoritmaları en verimli şekilde değerlendirerek sizlere 5. maçın olası kazanılma ihtimallerini iletmek istedim.

Finally, for the first time, I also wanted to share the pre-game win probability of the 5th game of the BSL Finals series. Please take into account that the calculations and simulations as well as algorithms that have been used were not fully to the level I wanted due to a major lack of data, it is still something to consider for those that are interested:

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