How progressive is your NBA team’s offense? — Basketball Analytics

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D. (@SteveShea33) July 17, 2017 NBA offenses are evolving. The increased reliance on 3-point shooting gets the most fanfare, but there is more to it than that. Teams are restructuring lineups and redesigning plays in hopes of improving all facets of shot selection, counterattacking with speed, and moving the ball faster. When…

via How progressive is your NBA team’s offense? — Basketball Analytics

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Is the G-League a threat to leagues around Europe?

Is the G-League a threat to leagues around Europe-

It’s a fact that the NBA is the most recognized and sought after place in terms of global basketball. Its such a peak of basketball that even the best players across various European leagues would without any question consider playing on an NBA team even for a minimum contract, just to fulfill a childhood dream. There are very few players that we’d consider we’d love to see play there. To me personally Nando De Colo (former San Antonio Spur, current CSKA Moscow guard) tops this list.There is a whole list of players that we have started to see shift from Europe; such as Ekpe Udoh, Bogdanovic and Teodosic (All players were in the top 10 of USG%, ORTg & NetRTg rankings) to name a few. While commitment of players to teams even in Europe has become that critical. At disappointing choices players make to leave fans just like in the NBA start burning their jerseys. While this article will not deal with the fan aspect it will discuss the fact that the original NBA expansion league (formerly known as the D-League) G-League has become a major attraction for US players that could not make the cut for any of the +420 NBA jobs.

With revisions in the collective bargaining agreement & salary cap a major change in the way the NBA and its partner league is on its way. What this potentially means is increasing player salaries (in the G-League) to a whooping 50% as well as an increase in respective G-League teams. Totalling them and equalling them to the number of NBA teams that they will be associated to.

The above mentioned situation in mind this is a potential outcome that would effect many US players that have been playing overseas to make a living.

Each year FIBA does a work up on migration trends across the globe (which can be accessed here). This report is an indicator of the past year (most recent is of 2016 – the next one will include a more recent insight) in FIBA zones of how players have shifted from one continent to the other. It is overall a visual proving that there is money to be made outside of the NBA. The improvements on the way to the G-League would see a drastic change in this methodology. We already know of the fact that NBA teams currently have the right to hold a 17 players under contract. (min. contracts, two-way contracts, etc…) Options on players increasing also means that the G-League appeal to US players is rising and while we already see players that have competed in Europe shifting to locations like China (E.McCollum, Cory Higgins, T.Honeycutt, Zach Auguste to name a few and all that had high NetRTg all above +120). Now given that the G-League would be looking at exploiting talent we could potentially see players with high PER value such as Macolm Delany. While there currently are 48 import players as mentioned by usabasket.com most of which fall short in terms of efficient players the fact of the matter is that they make good money putting on court performance aside. With recent transfers that have been going on to the G-League it will highly likely mean that we will end up seeing a different type of import players in European competition overall (here is a list of transfers of the G-League).

To me the daunting question of where the quality of players will end up going is undetermined. All I can foresee is that with close to 100 import players currently in the CBA in China, and the added factor that the G-League appeal will have on US players. Europe is becoming like a less appealing place for talent to land. 50,000 USD might be the current average contract in the G-League but with the addition of current sponsorships, changes in the salary structuring and the fact that teams in Europe that no longer can rustle up close to 3-4 mil. USD, within about the next 5-6 years the migration trend will end up skipping a certain quality of player with PER figures of +18 / +22, Ortg figures of +105 / +120.

We’ll all see what will happen as this unfolds in the near future.

Proud to announce an amazing partnership!

We are happy to announce that the best international Scouting services NetScouts Basketball which have been running their

scout certification program has recently accepted to partner up with us (Advance Pro Basketball).

Its been a long standing fact that scouting has been an aspect of the business of basketball that has worked parallel with basketball analytics on many levels.

With the above in mind:

Applications are now being accepted for the 2017-18 college basketball season.

Scout trainees will be:

  • Credentialed for college basketball games in your geographic area where you will live scout alongside professional scouts at press row
  • Assigned video scouting of overseas international tournaments
  • Trained in NetScouts Basketball’s scouting process
  • Trained in analytics software which will be used as part of the scouting process
  • Writing scouting reports which will be critiqued by NetScouts Basketball’s Managing Partners
  • Writing content for college games covered which will be featured on our website and others
  • Receiving important industry experience and an excellent resume reference

Trainees who have completed their year with sufficient live-scouting experience and who have submitted scouting reports in the quality required will be certified by NetScouts Basketball as being proficient in basketball scouting.

This program is available for the cost of $695 for the year. The cost includes our time in coordinating the credentialing process and the time involved in reviewing scouting reports. We also have monthly conference calls with trainees. We may limit the acceptance of applicants to this program based on geographic area or college. (Please be aware that we reserve the right to adjust the pricing based on improvements and advances in the program.)

We are open to accepting applicants from various countries as long as we can design the program so that it would benefit you. As NetScouts Basketball has partnered with Advance Pro Basketball the way the program will be run is the scouting end of the program will be managed by NetScouts Basketball and Advance Pro Basketball will act as representative in Europe and will also manage the analytics component to the course with inclusion of an analytics & game scouting app.

Successful scouts will be able to use NetScouts Basketball as a reference in pursuing relevant job opportunities as well as having the “Certification” help in your job search.

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“NetScouts Basketball’s scout training program has been an amazing part of my professional scouting journey. Through this program I have learned the ins and outs of scouting and have been given the opportunity to do it in a professional setting. Being affiliated with NetScouts has given me credibility for my career and allowed me to show other organizations my professional worth. I recommend this to anyone interested in scouting, analytics, media relations or just basketball in general.” Greg Walter (Baltimore, MD)

You can register for this program by contacting NetScouts Basketball or by contacting us directly.

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You can also contact Carl Berman at 001 541-359-9653 or write to carl@netscoutsbasketball.com or Ermay Duran at 0031 610 128 790 or write to ermay@advanceprobasketball.com  Please include your resume while applying.

Free Agents’ & their Individual Offensive Efficinency by Henry Yeh

Our dearest contributor Henry, while at the Utah Summer League did some behind the scenes analysis as the Free Agency market has been booming.

Here is his article that he recently posted up on his own blog:

http://basketball-datascience.com/2017/07/05/free-agents/

With the July moratorium (7/6, 11:00am CT) looming in as teams can begin officially signing players and making trades, I think it’s interesting to take a look into the free agents’ Individual Offensive Efficiency (IOE). I have attached the players’ games played, minutes, and the traditional stats.

 

(Note: UFA = Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA= Restricted Free Agent; *Player Option; **Team Option; ***Early Termination Option; Festus Ezeli’s stats are from last season with the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors )

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The formula for the IOE is Points Generated (PGEN) divided by Net Possession Terminated (NPT). The formulas are as below:

PGEN = Pts + ((Assisted Points / Player’s Tot Ast) * ( Ast + 2nd Ast + FTAst ))

NPT = FGA + Ast + 2ndAst + FTAst + ( 0.44 x FTA) – ORB + TO

whereas the PGEN measures the amount of points a player produces each time he  terminates a scoring possession while the NPT takes into account of all the possible actions that end a possession ( 1) field goal attempts, 2) assist of any type, 3) shooting fouls, 4) offensive rebounds, and 5) turnovers ). We use the parameter 0.44 for free throws because a player can shoot anywhere between one to three free throws. We subtract offensive rebounds because an offensive rebound extends a possession (it does not terminate the possession). Click here more details about these formulas.

Now we will have a new list ranked by the IOE. Cristiano Felicio has the highest IOE while Jordan Hill has the lowest (because he did not record an assist). Note that this list is not accurate to judge a player’s overall offensive ability since a lot of these free agents are fringe players, meaning they played very few games and minutes, which won’t garner any statistical significance. This is manifested by the fact that eight out of the top ten players are reserves and aside from Andre Iguodala, none of the other nine players have averaged more than 20.1 minutes per game. However, this list is still interesting to look at as it shows where some of the rotation players stand.

 

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— J.H. Yeh

(all tables are created by me, and all sources of stats are courtesy of NBA.com as of July 2, 2017)