Free Agents’ & their Individual Offensive Efficinency by Henry Yeh

Our dearest contributor Henry, while at the Utah Summer League did some behind the scenes analysis as the Free Agency market has been booming.

Here is his article that he recently posted up on his own blog:

http://basketball-datascience.com/2017/07/05/free-agents/

With the July moratorium (7/6, 11:00am CT) looming in as teams can begin officially signing players and making trades, I think it’s interesting to take a look into the free agents’ Individual Offensive Efficiency (IOE). I have attached the players’ games played, minutes, and the traditional stats.

 

(Note: UFA = Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA= Restricted Free Agent; *Player Option; **Team Option; ***Early Termination Option; Festus Ezeli’s stats are from last season with the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors )

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The formula for the IOE is Points Generated (PGEN) divided by Net Possession Terminated (NPT). The formulas are as below:

PGEN = Pts + ((Assisted Points / Player’s Tot Ast) * ( Ast + 2nd Ast + FTAst ))

NPT = FGA + Ast + 2ndAst + FTAst + ( 0.44 x FTA) – ORB + TO

whereas the PGEN measures the amount of points a player produces each time he  terminates a scoring possession while the NPT takes into account of all the possible actions that end a possession ( 1) field goal attempts, 2) assist of any type, 3) shooting fouls, 4) offensive rebounds, and 5) turnovers ). We use the parameter 0.44 for free throws because a player can shoot anywhere between one to three free throws. We subtract offensive rebounds because an offensive rebound extends a possession (it does not terminate the possession). Click here more details about these formulas.

Now we will have a new list ranked by the IOE. Cristiano Felicio has the highest IOE while Jordan Hill has the lowest (because he did not record an assist). Note that this list is not accurate to judge a player’s overall offensive ability since a lot of these free agents are fringe players, meaning they played very few games and minutes, which won’t garner any statistical significance. This is manifested by the fact that eight out of the top ten players are reserves and aside from Andre Iguodala, none of the other nine players have averaged more than 20.1 minutes per game. However, this list is still interesting to look at as it shows where some of the rotation players stand.

 

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— J.H. Yeh

(all tables are created by me, and all sources of stats are courtesy of NBA.com as of July 2, 2017)